Traders in northern Germany more optimistic about future

The AGA indicator has recovered slightly from 67.5 to 73.6 points over the first quarter of 2020. Yet, north German retailers and service providers have expressed caution about the future, and are somewhat more optimistic than in the previous quarter. Some 48 per cent of the firms interviewed expect a decline in turnover (previous quarter: 80 %), 19 per cent expect increased turnover (previous quarter: 3 %). 49 per cent forecast falling profits (previous quarter: 79 %) while 5 per cent  expect higher profits (previous quarter: 3 %) by December 31, 2020.

"The results of the survey confirm that the rescue measures and economic aid are having an effect and that things are slowly starting to pick up again," said Dr. Hans Fabian Kruse, President of AGA at the presentation of the latest survey. "We must combine compliance with the protective measures with economic ingenuity and commitment. Then, the economy will push ahead again." For 62 per cent of companies interviewed, the lower or non-existent demand for products and services in their sector proved the biggest challenge of the corona crisis. 

The latest survey by the Chamber of Commerce Hamburg has echoed the results of the AGA survey. According to the former, 42 per cent of companies do not expect a return to normality until 2021. A quick poll of 8,500 companies across Germany noted a similar mood in 39 per cent of companies. "Hamburg economy's is still in a very serious position despite some easing of the situation and the state's economic stimulus measures," said Prof. Norbert Aust, President of the Chamber of Commerce. "The economic consequences of the corona crisis will be palpable for a long time to come. Now, we must put companies in a position to generate sales themselves." Three out of four companies expect a decline in turnover for the whole of 2020, according to the Chamber of Commerce's survey. However, the respondents said their business situation is not as bad as in spring.

sm/kk/pb