Arctic Ocean to absorb less CO2, study by University of Hamburg finds

14 August 2024

Cluster of Excellence's study (CLICCS) finds plunge due to permafrost erosion

The Arctic Ocean will absorb less CO2 in future, according to a press release Friday (August 9, 2024) on a study by the University of Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence (CLICCS). The study shows how much CO2 is released into the atmosphere by the erosion of coastal permafrost. For every year and every degree Celsius the global temperature rises, the Arctic Ocean will absorb between one and two million metric tons less CO₂ from the atmosphere than previously expected. That corresponds to one tenth of the emissions caused by road traffic in Europe every year.

Understanding CO2 uptake

Dr David Nielsen, head of the climate research team, noted: “We should be grateful that our oceans absorb a major percentage of our greenhouse gases. But this ecosystem service might not always continue to be as strong as it has been in the past. To determine whether or not we can keep counting on this effect in the future, we need to first understand the mechanisms of CO₂ absorption in more detail.” Stretches of coastland that have been frozen for millennia are thawing and crumbling, and releasing huge amounts of soil and sediment into the ocean thereby increasing the carbon content in the water. This reduces the capacity to absorb CO₂ by 10 to 15 per cent.

CLICCS study boosts climate research

These findings should improve the understanding of permafrost erosion and can be better reflected in future climate forecasts and carbon budgets. Models for a global climate protection strategy can be further developed and the role of the world's oceans in the global carbon cycle can be better assessed. The scientists predict that the rate of the permafrost's erosion could double or even triple by 2100.
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