Using the examples of Cuxhaven, Esbjerg (Denmark) and Delfzijl (Netherlands), their study shows that the forecasts are reliable and extremely fast. Cuxhaven was hit by an average of 11.6 storm surges per year over the last decade. The model came up with 12.8 storm surges, with a tolerance of 1.6 plus or minus for the same period.
"Until 2029, the number of 12 storm surges per year will remain quite similar," said Krieger, a climate modeller. But the same cannot be said for extreme floods: "While the highest annual storm surge has averaged 2.5 metres over the past decade, our model predicts an average of three metres for the next five years."
Until now, climate models have indicated whether more storms would form in the North Sea, but not how they would affect coastal cities because their resolution was not high enough. Krieger's team used the hourly water level measurements taken in cities, where they have been recorded for several decades. The ten-year forecasts were then linked to the AI model to produce specific forecasts for individual cities and were generated in a mere second.
